Zhao invokes Marshall McLuhan — “we are always driving into the future via the rearview window” — to explain a recurring trap: a new medium first disguises itself as the old one. “Early phone calls were concise like telegrams. Early movies looked like filmed plays.” And “today, we see this as AI chatbots which mimic Google search boxes.” The danger isn’t the imitation itself; it’s mistaking the transition form for the final form and building as if the rearview image were the destination.
This is the perceptual failure mode behind The gains come from redesigning work around AI, not bolting AI onto human workflows — you keep the old shape because the old shape is all the rearview mirror shows you. It is the same ceiling named in Reasoning by analogy has a ceiling — you can never get beyond what already exists by copying what already exists: copying what exists (a search box, a filmed play) can never reach what doesn’t exist yet, and only a different reasoning mode escapes it. It also reframes why Build for the model six months from now, not the model of today matters — designing for the current chatbot interface is designing for the rearview image.